The Fat Lady Waits

The fat lady is warmed up and ready to perform, waiting for the knock on her dressing room door to make her way to the stage. And yet, will there yet be a last minute change of plans? 

Following our win in the 'must win' game against Brighton, when hope of avoiding relegation was rekindled, there has been the creditable (but inevitable) defeat at home to title chasing Liverpool, and a desperately disappointing defeat at already relegated Fulham on Saturday. It should all be over. But Brighton have made it hard for themselves too. Their superior goal difference is effectively worth an extra point in the struggle, but their continued poor form means that they have to continually worry. 

The number of scenarios in which we can avoid relegation remains small, but amazingly as we approach the penultimate game of the season we still have a slim chance of making it. But our fate is not entirely in our own hands. Firstly, we need Brighton to pick up no more than one point in their remaining two games, at Arsenal and home to Manchester City. Normally you could be quite confident about Brighton losing those two games, but Arsenal are on a terrible run having lost 3 games in a row, as well as being distracted by Europa League semi-finals. It looks like Manchester City may well need to win at Brighton to clinch the Premier League title, and as long as this is still the case then you have to be quite confident that they can do this at least.

If this happens, then all we need to do is win our final 2 games. At home to Crystal Place and away at Manchester United! On the face of it, this looks unlikely, but we live on in hope if not expectation. Statistics suggest that we're due a win, however lucky, against one of the top 6 teams. Now is the time to do it.

Matches since the last blog:

BRIGHTON 0 CARDIFF 2

CARDIFF 0 LIVERPOOL 2

FULHAM 1 CARDIFF 0

The game at Brighton gave us some hope. A stunning Nathaniel Mendez-Laing goal in the first half was added to by Sean Morrison's first goal of the season in the second half to give the Bluebirds a comfortable 2-0 win. Brighton were very poor but have managed to pick up 2 points since then to give themselves the edge. 

NML scores at Brighton.

Cardiff fought hard against Liverpool and held out until the hour mark of the game before a Wijnaldum goal settled the nerves for the Premier League contenders. Then last Saturday came a disappointing performance against already relegated Fulham when we didn't really start to play until we went a goal down with 10 minutes left to play. 

Its the business end of the season, so lets hope the team can get down to business!

Must Win.

As we begin to approach the business end of the season, there have only been 4 fixtures since my last post 6 weeks ago. This situation has come about following the FA Cup success of 2 of our opponents during that time. In that time, 2 teams are already relegated from the Premier League - Huddersfield and Fulham - and we are heavily odds on favourites to join them. Indeed, tonight's fixture at Brighton has become a 'must win' game if we are to avoid the drop, as it is difficult (though not mathematically impossible) to see any way out for us if we lose tonight.

Despite some great performances in recent weeks, some of our early season luck has begun to run out, and we have been on the wrong end of some poor refereeing decisions. Also, there have been to season-ending injuries to 2 of our talismanic players - Sol Bamba and Calum Paterson - to stretch our squad to its limits.

Results since the last post:

CARDIFF 2 WEST HAM 0

CARDIFF 1 CHELSEA 2

MANCHESTER CITY 2 CARDIFF 0

BURNLEY 2 CARDIFF 0

After the disappointment of the previous 3 performances, the fairly comfortable win against West ham was almost unexpected. An early Junior Hoilett goal relaxed the team. West Ham were not really at their best, and when Victor Camarasa squeezed the ball in at the far post early in the second half we were really under very little pressure from that time.

Victor Camarasa squeezes in the second!

But perhaps the most important moment of the season came in the home game against Chelsea almost 3 weeks later. Its always difficult to get a result against the top 6 sides for the teams near the bottom, but this was particularly heartbreaking. Yet again, Chelsea were not at their best, and some of their very expensive stars were not performing. We hung on in there, and managed to go in front early in the second half. Chelsea were forced to bring on Eden Hazard, one of the world's greatest players, but still Cardiff managed to essentially keep him under control. However, with 8 minutes to go a Chelsea corner led to Cesar Azpalicuetta scoring from close range from a clearly offside position which the match officials managed to completely miss. A  second Chelsea goal in stoppage time was almost irrelevant. As the popular phrase goes "We wuz robbed"! 

Neil Warnock gives the match officials his very best Paddington Bear stare!

Following this result there have been the expected (though creditable) 2-0 loss at Manchester City followed by the more disappointing 2-0 loss at Burnley last Saturday.

I believe that if we are truly to stand any chance of remaining in the Premier League then tonight is a "MUST WIN" game. Ironically, our late winner at the Cardiff City Stadium against Brighton in the earlier part of the season was subsequently found to have been offside (although not blatantly so). Lets hope the footballing gods are back on our side tonight.